Portfolio Project

Retail Marketing Incrementality

Measuring the Incremental Lift of a $100k Ad Campaign | Twin-City Quasi-Experiment & Causal Inference

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Campaign ROI
0%
95% CI: [148,992 – 169,880]
Incremental Revenue
$0
Across 5 test cities in December
95% CI: [$248,992 – $269,880]
Average Lift
0%
Sales increase vs. control cities
Statistical Significance
p < 0.001
DiD regression p = 1.95 × 10²³
Δ

Difference-in-Differences

OLS regression with HC1 robust standard errors • Pooled estimate: $1,713/day

ƒ

Bayesian Counterfactual (CausalImpact)

Structural time-series with 1,000-iteration bootstrap CIs

Test vs Control Cities - Full Year 2025
7-day rolling average • Shaded region = December campaign period
Twin-Pair Explorer
Select a city pair to compare test and control performance
Incremental Revenue by City
CausalImpact cumulative estimates with 95% CI error bars
Campaign Economics
$100k investment → $259k incremental revenue
December Avg Daily Sales: Test vs Control
Grouped bar comparison showing lift in every test market
Detailed City-Level Results
Comparing Diff-in-Diff and CausalImpact estimates side-by-side
City DiD Lift ($/day) CI Lift ($/day) DiD Lift % CI Lift % Cumulative ($) 95% CI
San Francisco $1,973 $1,946 +15.3% +15.1% $60,333 [$58,027 – $62,591]
Austin $1,748 $1,723 +16.8% +16.5% $53,423 [$51,472 – $55,490]
Miami $1,284 $1,254 +11.3% +11.0% $38,875 [$36,940 – $40,821]
Chicago $1,929 $1,872 +16.2% +15.7% $58,044 [$55,780 – $60,364]
Dallas $1,629 $1,569 +15.4% +14.8% $48,649 [$46,772 – $50,615]
TOTAL $8,563 $8,365 +15.0% +14.6% $259,324 [$248,992 – $269,880]